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· Detroit Tigers · Pick 5

Pick No. 5: Nobody runs on either of these guys, and that costs Cleveland more than Detroit

The call: Detroit takes the series finale Thursday afternoon at Comerica. Confidence: low.

Yesterday the question here was whether Detroit should be running on Cleveland. The answer was mostly yes, and the running-game edge in Wednesday night's game actually belonged to Cleveland, because Framber Valdez has let 13 runners steal and thrown out none of them.

Thursday afternoon the same series produces the opposite game entirely. Of the 58 qualified starters in baseball, exactly 1 is harder to run on than either of the 2 men starting this one, and he pitches for Milwaukee.

Nobody runs on these two

Take every qualified starting pitcher in baseball, 58 of them, and count steal attempts allowed per 9 innings. Not stolen bases, and not the rate runners get thrown out, because both of those are mostly a story about the catcher. Attempts is the pitcher's number. It's his time to the plate, his pickoff move, his handedness, and it's the closest free measure of whether a runner even considers it.

Keider Montero is 2nd of 58. Parker Messick is 3rd.

Steal attempts allowed per 9 innings by each of the 58 qualified starting pitchers in 2026 Nobody runs on these two Each dot is 1 of the 58 qualified starters. Left means runners almost never try. Steal attempts allowed per 9 innings. median 0.70 Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers: 1 attempts in 133.0 innings, 0.07 per 9, rank 1 of 58 Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs: 3 attempts in 137.3 innings, 0.20 per 9, rank 4 of 58 Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals: 4 attempts in 126.0 innings, 0.29 per 9, rank 5 of 58 Justin Wrobleski, Los Angeles Dodgers: 4 attempts in 120.3 innings, 0.30 per 9, rank 6 of 58 Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers: 5 attempts in 139.3 innings, 0.32 per 9, rank 7 of 58 MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers: 5 attempts in 134.0 innings, 0.34 per 9, rank 8 of 58 Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees: 5 attempts in 126.7 innings, 0.36 per 9, rank 9 of 58 Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians: 6 attempts in 144.3 innings, 0.37 per 9, rank 10 of 58 Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles: 6 attempts in 139.3 innings, 0.39 per 9, rank 11 of 58 Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates: 6 attempts in 134.7 innings, 0.40 per 9, rank 12 of 58 Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies: 7 attempts in 155.7 innings, 0.40 per 9, rank 13 of 58 Foster Griffin, Cleveland Guardians: 6 attempts in 133.3 innings, 0.41 per 9, rank 14 of 58 Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees: 7 attempts in 146.7 innings, 0.43 per 9, rank 15 of 58 Nolan McLean, New York Mets: 7 attempts in 136.7 innings, 0.46 per 9, rank 16 of 58 Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers: 7 attempts in 132.7 innings, 0.47 per 9, rank 17 of 58 Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles: 7 attempts in 127.0 innings, 0.50 per 9, rank 18 of 58 Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners: 8 attempts in 132.3 innings, 0.54 per 9, rank 19 of 58 Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks: 9 attempts in 143.3 innings, 0.57 per 9, rank 20 of 58 Freddy Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays: 8 attempts in 123.3 innings, 0.58 per 9, rank 21 of 58 Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays: 9 attempts in 138.0 innings, 0.59 per 9, rank 22 of 58 Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals: 10 attempts in 150.7 innings, 0.60 per 9, rank 23 of 58 Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals: 9 attempts in 134.7 innings, 0.60 per 9, rank 24 of 58 Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals: 9 attempts in 129.3 innings, 0.63 per 9, rank 25 of 58 Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals: 9 attempts in 128.7 innings, 0.63 per 9, rank 26 of 58 José Soriano, Toronto Blue Jays: 9 attempts in 127.7 innings, 0.63 per 9, rank 27 of 58 Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves: 9 attempts in 123.0 innings, 0.66 per 9, rank 28 of 58 Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins: 10 attempts in 131.7 innings, 0.68 per 9, rank 29 of 58 Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners: 11 attempts in 139.3 innings, 0.71 per 9, rank 30 of 58 Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs: 10 attempts in 121.7 innings, 0.74 per 9, rank 31 of 58 J.T. Ginn, Athletics: 10 attempts in 121.3 innings, 0.74 per 9, rank 32 of 58 Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners: 10 attempts in 121.0 innings, 0.74 per 9, rank 33 of 58 Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves: 11 attempts in 131.7 innings, 0.75 per 9, rank 34 of 58 Michael King, San Diego Padres: 13 attempts in 136.3 innings, 0.86 per 9, rank 35 of 58 Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels: 13 attempts in 135.0 innings, 0.87 per 9, rank 36 of 58 Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals: 13 attempts in 130.0 innings, 0.90 per 9, rank 37 of 58 Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians: 15 attempts in 144.7 innings, 0.93 per 9, rank 39 of 58 Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: 13 attempts in 125.0 innings, 0.94 per 9, rank 40 of 58 Kevin Gausman, Chicago Cubs: 14 attempts in 134.3 innings, 0.94 per 9, rank 41 of 58 Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants: 13 attempts in 123.7 innings, 0.95 per 9, rank 42 of 58 Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox: 13 attempts in 123.0 innings, 0.95 per 9, rank 43 of 58 Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins: 18 attempts in 163.7 innings, 0.99 per 9, rank 44 of 58 Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates: 15 attempts in 132.3 innings, 1.02 per 9, rank 45 of 58 Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds: 14 attempts in 119.7 innings, 1.05 per 9, rank 46 of 58 Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox: 15 attempts in 125.7 innings, 1.07 per 9, rank 47 of 58 Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks: 15 attempts in 123.7 innings, 1.09 per 9, rank 48 of 58 Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies: 20 attempts in 143.7 innings, 1.25 per 9, rank 49 of 58 Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants: 20 attempts in 133.0 innings, 1.35 per 9, rank 50 of 58 George Kirby, Seattle Mariners: 21 attempts in 132.0 innings, 1.43 per 9, rank 51 of 58 Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins: 20 attempts in 125.7 innings, 1.43 per 9, rank 52 of 58 Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox: 24 attempts in 135.7 innings, 1.59 per 9, rank 53 of 58 Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays: 24 attempts in 128.3 innings, 1.68 per 9, rank 54 of 58 Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays: 25 attempts in 131.3 innings, 1.71 per 9, rank 55 of 58 Robbie Ray, San Diego Padres: 25 attempts in 129.7 innings, 1.74 per 9, rank 56 of 58 Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds: 25 attempts in 128.7 innings, 1.75 per 9, rank 57 of 58 Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds: 26 attempts in 124.0 innings, 1.89 per 9, rank 58 of 58 Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers: 13 attempts in 127.3 innings, 0.92 per 9, rank 38 of 58 Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians: 2 attempts in 136.7 innings, 0.13 per 9, rank 3 of 58 Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers: 1 attempts in 122.3 innings, 0.07 per 9, rank 2 of 58 Valdez Messick Montero 0.0 0.7 2.0 Steal attempts allowed per 9 innings
Rank of 58PitcherAttempts allowedInningsPer 9
1Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee1133.00.07
2Keider Montero, Detroit1122.10.07
3Parker Messick, Cleveland2136.20.13
4Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs3137.10.20
5Michael McGreevy, St. Louis4126.00.29
29, the medianTaj Bradley, Minnesota10131.20.68
38Framber Valdez, Detroit13127.10.92
58Chase Burns, Cincinnati26124.01.89

Between them, Messick and Montero have faced 3 attempted steals in 259 innings. 2 median starters over the same workload would face about 20.

And here's the part I liked most: neither of them has thrown out a single runner. Montero has allowed 1 stolen base and caught nobody. Messick has allowed 2 and caught nobody. This isn't a couple of guys with rocket arms behind them gunning people down. It's that in 259 innings, 3 people have thought it was worth trying.

Which lands almost entirely on Cleveland

Detroit doesn't run. That's been true all year and it was the finding two days ago: 53 attempts in 1,100 times reached first, 4.8%, dead last of 30 teams. So Messick shutting down the Detroit running game is like locking a door nobody uses. Call it 0.4 attempts a game that Detroit wasn't going to make anyway.

Cleveland does run, and does it well. 117 steals, 23 caught, 83.6% success, attempting on 12.7% of times reached first. In a normal game they reach first about 9 times, so that's a bit over 1 attempt a game they'd like to have. Against Montero it's approximately zero.

Now the honest size of that. 1 attempt is not a game. If you handed me a lineup card and told me only that Cleveland's running game was switched off, I would move the number by a fraction of a run and no more. What makes it worth writing about is that Cleveland's offense doesn't have many other tools. They're 28th in baseball in runs scored, and 26th in OPS against right-handed pitching, which is what Montero is. The bases were one of the few places they were above average, and Thursday it's shut.

The rest of the game

Detroit is 59-60 and 2.5 back of the White Sox with the division wide open. They have won 8 of 10 and 3 in a row. Cleveland is 58-62, has lost 8 of 10 and 3 in a row, and is 4 back.

Under the records, the gap is bigger than 1 game in the standings. Detroit has scored 545 runs and allowed 456, and that run prevention number is 3rd best in baseball. Cleveland has scored 477 and allowed 506. That's a Detroit team outscoring its opponents by 89 against a Cleveland team being outscored by 29.

Home team, better team, hotter team, against a lineup that's 26th against righties. That's the call.

What scares me

Messick is the better pitcher and it isn't close. 2.57 ERA over 23 starts, 1.04 WHIP, 136 strikeouts in 136.2 innings. His fielding independent numbers back most of it up: 3.19 FIP, 3.44 xFIP. He is a 25-year-old lefty having a genuinely excellent season and Detroit is exactly league average against left-handed pitching, 15th of 30 at a .706 OPS. That's the whole case for Cleveland and it's a good one.

Montero's numbers are prettier than his pitching. A 1.01 WHIP looks outstanding until you notice he has 86 strikeouts in 122.1 innings, which is about 6.3 per 9, and that his xFIP is 4.57 against a 3.38 ERA. That's a run-and-a-fifth gap between what he's given up and what his strikeouts, walks and flyballs say he should have given up. He also gets hit harder at home, 3.79 at Comerica against 2.77 on the road, so the park isn't the trick either. I went looking for that explanation and it isn't there.

These 2 have already done this once and Cleveland won. May 19 at Comerica, Messick against Montero, Cleveland 4 Detroit 3. Messick went 5 and gave up 2. Montero went 5, gave up 3, and walked 4 while striking out 1.

And the season series is 1-6. Detroit finally beat Cleveland on Monday for the first time in 7 tries. The piece on this site that went looking for the reason concluded there mostly isn't one, and I still believe that. But 1-6 is 1-6, and I'm picking the team that owns the losing end of it.

Not betting advice.

Got a Detroit number you want looked at? Email projectunmuted@proton.me and it gets looked at properly. A stat somebody quoted that smells wrong, a thing you have always assumed about one of these 4 teams and have never seen checked. Every question that arrives is listed with its answer, including the ones where the answer is no.

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