Pick No. 11: 6 outfielders on the injured list, and Skenes at home
Tigers at Pirates, Wednesday 12:35pm ET at PNC Park. The call: Pirates win. Confidence Low.
I'm not picking Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh is good. They're 62-66. I'm picking them because Detroit is trying to score runs with an outfield that has been rebuilt out of whatever was left in Toledo.
The list
| Player | Status | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene | 10-day IL | 492 PA, .816 OPS |
| Kerry Carpenter | 10-day IL | 259 PA, .692 OPS |
| Matt Vierling | 10-day IL | 291 PA, .590 OPS |
| Wenceel Pérez | 60-day IL | 175 PA |
| James Outman | 7-day IL | 170 PA |
| Parker Meadows | 60-day IL | 39 PA |
That's 6, and Greene is the one that hurts. Tuesday's corners were Brett Callahan, whose contract was selected from Toledo on Sunday, and Zach McKinstry, who is an infielder. Callahan hit a home run and it was the entire Detroit offense.
Being fair to the roster: there are still 4 outfielders active, and Ben Malgeri has been good, .833 OPS in 69 plate appearances across 30 games. Max Clark is in center every day. This isn't a lineup with a hole where the outfield goes. It's a lineup where the outfield is 2 rookies, a fill-in and a guy playing out of position, and where the .816 bat is watching.
What that has done to the run column
Last 14 games, runs scored: 8, 2, 11, 2, 8, 3, 6, 4, 3, 5, 3, 5, 8, 1.
Six of those 14 are 3 or fewer. The good nights are still very good, which is why the season averages don't look alarming, but the floor has fallen out and the floor is what you're betting on against a top-of-rotation arm.
Skenes at home is a different pitcher than Skenes on the road
| GS | IP | ERA | Opp AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes, home | 13 | 73.1 | 3.44 | .215 |
| Paul Skenes, road | 12 | 61.1 | 4.40 | .242 |
He's at home. 166 strikeouts in 134.2 innings, a 1.12 WHIP, opponents at .228 overall. A lineup that just went 0 for 16 through its middle is not the lineup you want reading that scouting report.
The caveat that belongs right here rather than buried at the bottom: the home edge is mostly a first-half edge. Skenes was 3.02 at PNC in 10 starts before July and he's 4.86 at PNC in 3 starts since. Three starts is nothing, so I'm not treating it as a trend, but I'm also not pretending the 3.44 is a current reading.
The other side of it: Jobe is 12 days off the injured list
Jackson Jobe was placed on the 60-day IL on February 10, recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was activated August 7 after rehab stops at Lakeland, the FCL, Erie and West Michigan. This is start number 3.
| Start | Line |
|---|---|
| Aug 8 at San Francisco | 5.0 IP, 1 hit, 0 runs, 4 K |
| Aug 14 vs White Sox | 3.2 IP, 9 hits, 6 runs, 4 K |
The encouraging part is the walks. He walked 27 in 49 innings in 2025, which is just about 5 per 9, and he's walked 2 in 8.2 this year. The command is back. What isn't back yet is the ability to survive a lineup the second time through, and 9 hits in 3.2 innings against Chicago is what that looks like.
What scares me, and it's enough to keep this Low
Skenes has been ordinary for 7 weeks.
| Paul Skenes | GS | IP | ERA | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Through June 30 | 17 | 93.0 | 3.10 | 20 | 114 |
| Since July 1 | 8 | 41.2 | 5.62 | 17 | 52 |
That's a real change, with one honest asterisk: the window opens on July 1 itself, which was his worst outing of the year, 4 innings and 7 earned against Philadelphia. Drop that single game and the other 7 starts are 4.54, not 5.62. So the decline is real and it's smaller than the headline split makes it look.
What isn't endpoint-sensitive is the length. He has finished 6 innings twice in his last 8 starts. If he goes 5 again, Detroit gets 4 innings against a Pittsburgh bullpen carrying a 4.25 ERA, and that same bullpen gave up 4 runs to this same depleted lineup on Monday.
So the shape I'm scared of is obvious: Skenes grinds through 5, Detroit gets into the middle relief, and the bimodal offense picks today to be an 8. It has done that once already this series.
I'm taking Pittsburgh anyway, because the version where Detroit wins needs 2 things: Jobe better in start 3 than he was in start 2, and a lineup down 6 outfielders solving an arm with 166 strikeouts in 134.2 innings. Pittsburgh needs 1 thing, which is Skenes being roughly himself for 5.
Pirates win. Low.
The argument against me is the 5.62, and if you think 8 starts of a pitcher walking 17 in 41.2 innings outweighs a road lineup missing its best 3 bats, say so. That's the actual disagreement in this game.
Not betting advice.
Got a Detroit number you want looked at? Email projectunmuted@proton.me and it gets looked at properly. A stat somebody quoted that smells wrong, a thing you have always assumed about one of these 4 teams and have never seen checked. Every question that arrives is listed with its answer, including the ones where the answer is no.