Graded: Pick No. 11. Right team, wrong reason, and the wrong reason is the story
The call, committed before first pitch: Pirates win. Confidence Low.
The result: Pirates 4, Tigers 3. gamePk 823342, Final on the id.
Record: 7-4.
The pick was right and every sentence under it was wrong
Wednesday's entry said Detroit had 6 outfielders on the injured list, that the lineup had scored 3 or fewer in 6 of its last 14, and that this was not the group you want walking into Paul Skenes at PNC Park.
| The argument | Wednesday afternoon | |
|---|---|---|
| Skenes goes deep | 13 home starts, 3.44, opponents at .215 | 4.1 innings, 3 earned, 4 walks |
| Detroit can't score | 3 or fewer in 6 of the last 14 | 3 runs, 7 hits, chased him in the 5th |
| So Pittsburgh wins | Because of the bats | Because of the 9th |
Jackson Jobe gave them 5.1 innings and 1 run in his 3rd start back off Tommy John. Tyler Holton, Jacob Waguespack, Drew Sommers and Kyle Finnegan covered the next 2.2 without allowing anything. Detroit took a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the ninth on the road.
Kenley Jansen came in. Rafael Flores Jr. hit a solo home run to left to tie it and Brandon Lowe hit a solo home run to right to end it, 2 batters later. Jansen threw 0.2 innings, allowed 2 runs, and was charged with the blown save and the loss.
That was Detroit's 28th blown save
26 saves in 54 chances. Not a rate that has slipped lately, a rate that has been this all year, and it is now the worst conversion figure in Major League Baseball. The team ERA is 3.57, which is 4th best.
I picked Pittsburgh on Wednesday for a reason that did not happen, and got paid by a reason I did not write down. A pick that lands for the wrong cause is worth less than the box score says it is, and the sharper version of Wednesday's entry would have been much shorter: Detroit takes a lead into the late innings and gives it back more often than anybody, and the outfield is a side plot.
That is the thing worth chasing, and it is where Friday's series preview goes.
Not betting advice.
Got a Detroit number you want looked at? Email projectunmuted@proton.me and it gets looked at properly. A stat somebody quoted that smells wrong, a thing you have always assumed about one of these 4 teams and have never seen checked. Every question that arrives is listed with its answer, including the ones where the answer is no.