Pick 18: Detroit has scored 3 runs a game for two weeks and the outfield is in the trainer's room
Los Angeles at Detroit, Sunday 1:40pm ET at Comerica. Dodgers win, High.
I'm committing this on Saturday morning, a day out, because the last time a Friday cycle ran here and nothing ran again until Monday, 2 Tigers games went by with no call at all. A pick made 27 hours early counts. A pick made at 1:45 doesn't.
The offense stopped
| Detroit, last 11 games | |
|---|---|
| Record | 2-9 |
| Runs scored | 33 |
| Runs per game | 3.0 |
| Games held to 1 or 0 | 5 |
Aug 16 through Aug 28. Five times in eleven games they scored one run or none. That's not a slump against good pitching either, it includes Chicago, Pittsburgh and Kansas City.
The reason is not mysterious. Look at who is on the injured list:
| Out | Position | This season |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene | LF | 492 PA, .816 OPS |
| Kerry Carpenter | RF | 259 PA, .692 OPS |
| Matt Vierling | CF | 291 PA, .590 OPS |
That is an entire outfield, and the best hitter in it. Greene alone accounts for most of the difference between a lineup that scores 4.4 a game, which is what Detroit has done all year, and one that scores 3.0.
Who they're facing
| Record | Runs | Runs allowed | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 81-54 | 663 | 514 | 7-3 |
| Detroit | 62-72 | 593 | 524 | 2-8 |
Los Angeles is 27 games over .500 and playing its best baseball of the month. Detroit is 10 games under and has lost 8 of 10.
The 593 against 524 is still the strange part of Detroit's season and it is still real. A team with a plus 69 run differential should be around 74-60, not 62-72. That gap describes a team that has been unlucky rather than bad. But a Pythagorean residual is a claim about 134 games. It is not a reason to pick one Sunday afternoon.
The Detroit case, such as it is
Framber Valdez at home, and Los Angeles is banged up too. Andy Pages is on the 10-day with 550 plate appearances and a .796 OPS. Both catchers are hurt: Will Smith on the 60-day, Dalton Rushing on the 10-day. Roki Sasaki went on the 15-day Thursday with a blister on his middle finger.
Valdez's own line is the problem with leaning on it.
| Framber Valdez, 2026 | |
|---|---|
| Record | 8-9 |
| ERA | 4.35 |
| WHIP | 1.41 |
| Innings | 144.2 |
| Strikeouts / walks | 111 / 56 |
A 1.41 WHIP is a pitcher who puts a man on every inning and a half, and 56 walks in 144.2 innings is a pitcher who gives some of them away. Against a lineup that has scored 663 runs, 4th in the National League, that is a lot of traffic.
Why High
Because this is not close on either side of the ball right now. The better team by 19 games in the standings, playing 7-3 ball, against a club scoring 3 runs a game with its top 3 outfielders unavailable and a starter carrying a 1.41 WHIP. If I called that Low the label would mean nothing.
What scares me
Los Angeles has not named a Sunday starter. That is the whole risk in this pick. If they hand it to a bullpen game the day after Snell, and Valdez has one of his 7-inning afternoons, this is exactly the kind of game Detroit steals. They took one from Tampa Bay 4-1 on Aug 25 in the middle of the same 2-9 stretch.
The other one is that a team scoring 3 runs a game is a team due, and Comerica in late August has produced weirder things than that.
I still think Los Angeles wins it comfortably.
Not betting advice.
Got a Detroit number you want looked at? Email projectunmuted@proton.me and it gets looked at properly. A stat somebody quoted that smells wrong, a thing you have always assumed about one of these 4 teams and have never seen checked. Every question that arrives is listed with its answer, including the ones where the answer is no.