Series preview: Minnesota has allowed 156 more runs than Detroit and is still ahead of them in the standings
Detroit at Minnesota. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, all 7:40pm ET at Target Field. Monday: Tigers win. The series: Detroit takes 2 of 3.
Here are 2 clubs separated by half a game.
| Record | Runs scored | Runs allowed | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 64-72 | 621 | 681 | -60 |
| Detroit | 63-72 | 595 | 525 | +70 |
156 runs of separation in run prevention, and Minnesota is the one in front. Half a game, with Detroit holding a game in hand, so it's very nearly nothing, and both of these teams have played themselves out of the race anyway. But a 130 run swing in differential should buy more than nothing.
It buys nothing here, and the reason is the thing that has defined Detroit's whole season.
The division is normal. Detroit isn't.
The same numbers, for anyone who would rather read them:
| AL Central | Record | RS | RA | Expected wins | Above or below |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | 64-72 | 621 | 681 | 62.3 | +1.7 |
| Guardians | 68-68 | 546 | 558 | 66.6 | +1.4 |
| Royals | 62-75 | 589 | 662 | 61.2 | +0.8 |
| White Sox | 72-63 | 651 | 603 | 72.2 | -0.2 |
| Tigers | 63-72 | 595 | 525 | 75.2 | -12.2 |
Pythagorean exponent 1.83, which is Baseball Reference's standard. Four teams in this division sit within 2 wins of what their runs say they should have. The fifth is 12 under, and it's the only one in the group with a positive run differential.
That -12.2 is the largest gap in baseball. Second place is the Angels at -7.7, and they at least have the decency to be bad at everything.
Where the 12 wins went
| Tigers | Twins | |
|---|---|---|
| Team ERA | 3.56 | 4.68 |
| WHIP | 1.22 | 1.39 |
| Saves | 27 | 38 |
| Blown saves | 28 | 16 |
| Record in 1-run games | 13-23 | 14-20 |
| Record in extra innings | 4-7 | 4-3 |
Detroit has blown more saves than it has converted. 27 for 55 is the 2nd worst conversion rate in the major leagues, behind only the Angels, and it's being posted by the staff with the best ERA in this division. Minnesota's pitchers give up more than a full run a game more than Detroit's and convert 38 of 54.
13-23 in one-run games is the same fact told as wins and losses. Detroit has played 36 of them, more than a quarter of its season, and lost 23. You don't need a model to turn 156 runs of pitching advantage into nothing. You just need to keep handing 1-run leads back in the 8th.
The season series says the opposite, and it's 7 games
Minnesota has won 5 of 7. Detroit has outscored them anyway.
| Date | Score | Where |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6 | Detroit 3, Minnesota 7 | at Minnesota |
| Apr 7 | Detroit 2, Minnesota 4 | at Minnesota |
| Apr 8 | Detroit 6, Minnesota 8 | at Minnesota |
| Apr 9 | Detroit 1, Minnesota 3 | at Minnesota |
| Jun 9 | Detroit 10, Minnesota 4 | at Detroit |
| Jun 10 | Detroit 4, Minnesota 6 | at Detroit |
| Jun 11 | Detroit 11, Minnesota 0 | at Detroit |
37 runs to 32, and 21 of Detroit's 37 came in the 2 games it won. That isn't a mystery, it's the 1-run game problem wearing an April jersey: 4 games at Target Field, 4 losses, 3 of them by exactly 2 runs.
What Minnesota is missing
Joe Ryan is on the 15-day injured list. 125.2 innings, 3.65 ERA, and on a staff whose team number is 4.68 he's the one starter who has been meaningfully better than the group. Austin Martin is on the 10-day.
None of the 3 starters for this series had been named as of Sunday morning, on either side, so this is a team-level call rather than a matchup one and I'd rather say that than pretend I know who's throwing.
Detroit's own list is worse and has been for 2 weeks. Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Matt Vierling are all out, which is an outfield, and Greene was an .816 OPS over 492 plate appearances. Jack Flaherty is on the 15-day.
The call
Tigers win Monday. Low.
The case is that Minnesota has to score to win and this Detroit pitching staff is the reason nobody in this division scores on it. 525 runs allowed in 135 games is 3.9 a night. Minnesota gives up 5.0. Over 3 games, the club allowing a run less per game should take the series, and that's why the series call is Detroit in 2 of 3 even with the head to head pointing the other way.
The series: Detroit takes 2 of 3.
And here's the number that argues hardest against all of that, because it's the only sample of this exact matchup in this exact park: in those 4 April games at Target Field, Detroit allowed 22 runs. 5.5 a game, from the staff this whole piece has been calling the best in the division, and worse than the 5.0 Minnesota gives up on the season.
4 games is 4 games and I'm not going to build a pick on it. But I'm also not going to quote a season average at you and quietly skip the one slice of it that was played where Monday's game is going to be played.
What scares me
Everything about how Detroit has actually been playing.
2-8 in its last 10. 29-38 on the road. 3-9 over the last 14 days. A .239 team average with 3 outfielders on the injured list, and the last 2 weeks have been full of nights where Detroit got 6 hits and lost. Saturday it got 6 hits and won, and that felt like an exception rather than a turn.
And the mechanism hasn't been fixed. Nothing about this morning says the bullpen that's 27 for 55 has stopped being 27 for 55. If Monday is 2-1 in the 7th, all of the above is a good argument that loses anyway, which is what a 12 win gap is: a good argument losing 36 times.
It's Low because I think Detroit is the better team and I've watched the better team lose this exact game since April.
Not betting advice.
Got a Detroit number you want looked at? Email projectunmuted@proton.me and it gets looked at properly. A stat somebody quoted that smells wrong, a thing you have always assumed about one of these 4 teams and have never seen checked. Every question that arrives is listed with its answer, including the ones where the answer is no.