Pick No. 15: Freddy Peralta has given up 15 home runs on the road and 7 at home
The call: Tigers win. Confidence Low.
The game: Rays at Tigers, gamePk 824234, 1:10pm ET Wednesday. Freddy Peralta against Troy Melton. Committed a day early on purpose, because this machine went dark for three days last week and a pick made after first pitch is worth nothing.
Same pitcher, two different seasons, and it splits on the road sign
Peralta has made 26 starts across two clubs this year, 22 for the Mets and 4 since he joined Tampa Bay. Split him by venue and the innings are almost identical:
| IP | ERA | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| At home | 72.2 | 4.09 | 7 |
| On the road | 62.1 | 6.79 | 15 |
Ten fewer innings on the road and more than twice the home runs. That is 2.17 per 9 away against 0.87 at home, out of a season line of 5.33 over 135 innings with 129 strikeouts and 54 walks.
The four starts since he changed uniforms have not fixed it. He is 7.17 over 21.1 as a Ray, with 5 home runs in those 21.1 innings, and 16.2 of those innings came away from the Trop where the ERA is 8.10.
Wednesday afternoon is a road start.
The one thing that should argue against it, and mostly doesn't
Comerica Park is supposed to eat fly balls, which would blunt the whole point: if the park kills home runs, Peralta's worst trait never gets to show up. So I checked it rather than assuming it.
| Tigers games | G | HR hit | HR allowed | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At home | 64 | 75 | 61 | 136 | 2.13 |
| On the road | 67 | 79 | 74 | 153 | 2.28 |
About 7 percent fewer home runs per game in Detroit's park than in the parks Detroit visits. Real, and nowhere near enough to erase a split that runs two to one. Comerica takes the edge off it. It does not take it away.
The other side of it is a 1.60 ERA nobody outside Michigan is talking about
Troy Melton, 15 starts, 90 innings, 1.60. WHIP 1.00. Since the start of July he has allowed more than 2 earned runs in a game exactly zero times:
| Date | IP | ER | K | BB | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8 | 5.1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 91 |
| Jul 17 | 5.2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 94 |
| Jul 23 | 5.0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 90 |
| Jul 28 | 7.0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 92 |
| Aug 4 | 7.0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 97 |
| Aug 9 | 6.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 92 |
| Aug 15 | 4.1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 87 |
| Aug 21 | 5.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 94 |
And the number that made me write this one down: Detroit is 61-70 on the season and 10-4 in games Melton starts. A team playing .466 baseball plays .714 behind one guy, 14 times.
Why Low, and what scares me
Plenty.
Detroit has lost 6 straight and is 1-9 in its last 10, outscored 36 to 56 over that stretch. Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Matt Vierling are all on the 10-day injured list, which is 1,042 plate appearances of the everyday lineup sitting down at once. The injury report was pulled this morning at exit 0, so that list is complete rather than partial. A rotation edge does not matter if the lineup keeps putting up 1 run, which is what it did Monday.
Melton is also the wrong way round for my own argument. He is 1.23 on the road and 2.09 at home, with 7 of his 10 home runs allowed coming in Detroit, and Wednesday is a home start for him. I am leaning on a venue split for one pitcher while ignoring the smaller one running against me for the other, and you should know that.
Tampa Bay is 78-53 with a plus 47 run differential, 35-30 away from the Trop, and has won 2 in a row.
But 1.60 against 5.33 is a gap you do not get very often, and the guy with the 5.33 is pitching in the half of his season where he gives up all the home runs.
Tigers win.
Not betting advice.
Got a Detroit number you want looked at? Email projectunmuted@proton.me and it gets looked at properly. A stat somebody quoted that smells wrong, a thing you have always assumed about one of these 4 teams and have never seen checked. Every question that arrives is listed with its answer, including the ones where the answer is no.