Pick No. 14: Jackson Jobe is not going to pitch long enough
The call: Rays win. Confidence Low.
The game: Rays at Tigers, gamePk 824233, 6:40pm ET Tuesday. Ian Seymour against Jackson Jobe.
This one is about innings, not runs
Jobe is 3 starts into whatever this is. Here is all of it:
| Date | Opponent | IP | H | ER | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8 | at San Francisco | 5.0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 71 |
| Aug 14 | vs Chicago | 3.2 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 74 |
| Aug 19 | at Pittsburgh | 5.1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 86 |
14 innings, 3 starts, and the pitch count has climbed 71 to 74 to 86 without the outing ever reaching the 6th. That is a club managing a workload, and I do not think tonight is the night it stops. Call it 5 innings and 90 pitches if everything goes well.
Seymour's last 6 starts, on the other side:
| Date | Opponent | IP | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23 | Toronto | 6.0 | 2 | 7 |
| Jul 29 | Texas | 4.2 | 0 | 4 |
| Aug 3 | Colorado | 6.0 | 2 | 9 |
| Aug 9 | Seattle | 6.0 | 1 | 7 |
| Aug 15 | Baltimore | 6.0 | 3 | 9 |
| Aug 20 | Toronto | 5.0 | 3 | 8 |
44 strikeouts in 33.2 innings and he has not been pulled before the 5th all summer. Season line is 4.17 over 101.1 with 123 strikeouts and 32 walks.
So the likely shape is Tampa Bay needing 3 or 4 innings from its bullpen and Detroit needing 4 or 5 from its own. Those are not the same ask:
| Tigers | Rays | |
|---|---|---|
| Saves / chances | 26 of 54 | 52 of 67 |
| Blown saves | 28 | 15 |
| Holds | 60 | 101 |
| Team ERA | 3.61 | 3.81 |
Detroit's relief group has the most blown saves in baseball and it is being rebuilt in the middle of the series. In the last 3 days the Tigers signed Tyler Kinley off the street and put him straight on the active roster, designated Ricky Vanasco, optioned Ty Madden, optioned Enmanuel De Jesus and selected Andrew Sears from Toledo. That is 5 moves in a bullpen that has to cover 4 innings tonight.
The lineup is not going to bail him out
Detroit has lost 6 in a row and gone 1-9 in its last 10, scoring 36 and allowing 56 over that stretch. Monday it managed 5 hits and its only run came in on a ball that was not a hit.
Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Matt Vierling are all on the 10-day, which is 1,042 plate appearances of the everyday lineup sitting down at once, and Greene's .816 OPS is most of the middle of the order. Injury report pulled tonight at exit 0, so that list is complete rather than partial.
Why Low, and what beats me
Seymour is worse away from home, 4.70 on the road against 3.77 at the Trop, and his walk rate goes with it. Jobe's one bad start was the one at Comerica, which is the sample that argues against him tonight and is also a single game against the White Sox. Detroit is 32-32 at home and Tampa Bay has been ordinary lately at 4-6 in its last 10.
And the honest version of the innings argument is that it is a tendency, not a rule. If Jobe throws 100 pitches and gets through 6, most of this falls over.
I still do not want the team that is 1-9 and starting a pitcher on a leash.
Rays win.
Not betting advice.
Got a Detroit number you want looked at? Email projectunmuted@proton.me and it gets looked at properly. A stat somebody quoted that smells wrong, a thing you have always assumed about one of these 4 teams and have never seen checked. Every question that arrives is listed with its answer, including the ones where the answer is no.