Graded: Pick No. 13. The best pitcher in the series pitched like it
The call, committed before first pitch: Rays win. Confidence Low.
The result: Rays 4, Tigers 1. gamePk 824235, Final on the id.
Record: 8-5.
The pitching matchup was the whole pick and it held
| What the pick said | Monday night | |
|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen | 3.01, 138 K against 25 walks | 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 run, 5 K, 0 walks |
| Valdez | 4.35, 54 walks | 6 IP, 8 hits, 4 runs, 2 walks, 0 K |
That last cell is the one worth stopping on. Valdez has made 26 starts this season and Monday was the first one he finished without a strikeout. Six innings, 24 batters, nobody swung through anything for a third strike. He was not blown up either, and 3 of the 4 runs were earned, but a ground ball pitcher who cannot miss a bat is a pitcher who needs the defense behind him to be perfect, and Detroit made an error.
Rasmussen's line is close to what he has done all year, which is why the pick was built on him. Tampa Bay's bullpen then threw 3 scoreless behind him and struck out 7 in those 3 innings.
Detroit's run did not come off a hit
Tampa Bay put 2 up in the first and added one in the 4th and one in the 6th. Detroit's only run scored in the 4th and Brett Callahan drove it in without getting a hit. 5 hits total, 6 left on base.
The Low label was about Comerica, where Detroit had been near even at 32-31, and about Tampa Bay arriving 3-7 in its last 10. Both of those were real and neither mattered. Detroit is 32-32 at home now and has lost 6 straight.
The last 10 games are the thing to look at
Detroit is 1-9 over that stretch and has been outscored 36 to 56. That works out to 3.6 runs scored and 5.6 allowed a night against a team that has averaged 4.5 and 4.0 across the season.
The story on this club all year has been that the record understates it. That argument needs the run differential to be good, and over the last 10 games it has not been. This is no longer a team getting beaten in close games. It is a team getting outscored.
Tampa Bay and Detroit play again tonight at 6:40.
Not betting advice.
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