Series preview: Skubal comes back to Comerica, and the Dodgers have not had a winning month since June
Los Angeles at Detroit. Friday 6:40pm, Saturday 1:10pm, Sunday 1:40pm ET, at Comerica Park. Friday: Dodgers win. The series: Los Angeles takes 2 of 3.
Tarik Skubal pitches Friday night, in the other uniform, on the mound he threw 96.2 innings from this season.
His last start for Detroit was July 29 against Baltimore. His first for Los Angeles was August 4 against the Cubs. Friday is start number 5 in blue and the first one against the club that had him.
| Tarik Skubal, 2026 | GS | IP | ER | ERA | WHIP | K | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit, Mar 26 to Jul 29 | 16 | 96.2 | 30 | 2.79 | 0.91 | 116 | 10.8 |
| Los Angeles, Aug 4 to Aug 22 | 4 | 24.0 | 9 | 3.38 | 1.12 | 30 | 11.2 |
4 starts is 4 starts, and the difference between a 2.79 and a 3.38 over 24 innings is 2 baserunners and one bad third inning. Don't read a decline into it. He's striking out more hitters per 9 than he did here, and last time out he went 7 against Pittsburgh with 11 strikeouts.
What surprised me is what the trade did to the Dodgers, which is nothing
Los Angeles is 80-53 and it's a very good team. It's also a team that hasn't had a winning month by run differential since June.
| Month | Detroit | Los Angeles |
|---|---|---|
| March | 2-3, +1 | 4-1, +9 |
| April | 14-13, +8 | 16-10, +57 |
| May | 6-22, -48 | 18-10, +63 |
| June | 15-11, +46 | 18-9, +34 |
| July | 15-9, +43 | 13-11, -8 |
| August | 10-13, +20 | 11-12, -6 |
Since July 1, Los Angeles is 24-23 and minus 14. Detroit over the same 2 months is 25-22 and plus 63.
That's not a claim that the Tigers are the better club, and I want to be clear about it because the number invites the reading. The Dodgers built 149 runs of differential in the first 3 months and they get to keep it. What the split does say is that the slide started in July, before the deadline, so whatever is wrong in Los Angeles isn't something acquiring Skubal fixed, and it isn't something he caused either. He arrived in the middle of it.
Their 3 starters this weekend are Skubal, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, who was activated off the 60-day injured list on Tuesday. That's a serious 3 days of pitching whatever the run differential has been doing.
Detroit is 3-11 since August 11
Riley Greene went on the 10-day injured list on August 12, right hamstring strain. Kerry Carpenter has been out since July 27 with plantar fasciitis, Matt Vierling since July 31 with an adductor strain.
| Detroit in August | G | Record | Runs | Per game | Allowed | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1 through Aug 11 | 9 | 7-2 | 59 | 6.6 | 20 | 2.2 |
| Aug 12 through Aug 26 | 14 | 3-11 | 47 | 3.4 | 66 | 4.7 |
The pitching fell off on the same date, which a hamstring doesn't explain, so some of this is just a 14 game slump doing what slumps do. Wednesday afternoon they were shut out on 2 hits. That's the club that draws Skubal on Friday, without its 3 best outfield bats, 1,042 plate appearances of the everyday lineup sitting down.
Drew Anderson takes the other side. 6 starts, a 4.09 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP. He's been fine. Fine isn't the word you want next to that matchup.
The call
Friday: Dodgers win. Confidence High.
High isn't a word I use often here and it's the honest label for this one. The best pitcher in baseball, against a lineup that's scored 3.4 runs a game for a fortnight and is missing 3 regulars, with a 4.09 starter opposite him. If this loses I'll have been wrong about something real rather than unlucky.
What scares me, and there is some:
Skubal has never faced this lineup, and that cuts both ways. Every advance report Detroit has on him came out of the same building, and the 2 hitters most likely to decide it, Kevin McGonigle at 22 and Max Clark at 21, have far less book on them than he has on the rest of the room.
The Dodgers' run prevention is the half of the team that broke. Andy Pages, Will Smith and Dalton Rushing are all on the injured list, which is their center fielder and 2 catchers. Ben Rortvedt and Hunter Feduccia have split all 4 of Skubal's starts in Los Angeles between them.
And Detroit is 33-33 at Comerica against 29-38 on the road, which is close to a different team.
The series: Los Angeles takes 2 of 3. Snell on Saturday against Keider Montero, Glasnow on Sunday against Framber Valdez and his 4.35. If Detroit takes one, Sunday is the one, because Glasnow is 8 starts into a season interrupted by a 60-day injured list stay and that's the shortest leash of the 3.
Not betting advice.
Got a Detroit number you want looked at? Email projectunmuted@proton.me and it gets looked at properly. A stat somebody quoted that smells wrong, a thing you have always assumed about one of these 4 teams and have never seen checked. Every question that arrives is listed with its answer, including the ones where the answer is no.