Pick 17: Blake Snell has made 4 starts all season and 3 of them are this month
Los Angeles at Detroit, Saturday 1:10pm ET at Comerica. Dodgers win, Low.
I'm committing this on Friday morning instead of Saturday morning because the last time a Friday cycle ran and then nothing ran until Monday, 2 Tigers games went by with no call at all. A pick made a day early counts. A pick made at 1:15 doesn't.
Saturday is Blake Snell against Keider Montero, and the thing that jumps out is that neither of them has been on a normal schedule.
| Blake Snell, 2026 | Date | Opp | IP | ER | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9 | Braves | 3.0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | |
| Aug 11 | Royals | 6.0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | |
| Aug 17 | Rockies | 6.0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | |
| Aug 23 | Pirates | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
That's the whole season. 1 start in May, a 3 month hole, and then 3 starts in 12 days. Since he came back he's thrown 18 innings, given up 2 earned, and struck out 21. His season ERA reads 2.57 and that number is mostly the May start dragging a very good August up the page.
Montero's gap is smaller and stranger. He's got 133.2 innings and a 3.30 ERA, which is a real season for a 4th starter, and he hasn't started a game since August 18 against Pittsburgh. He isn't on the injured list. 11 days between starts in the last week of August is just a thing that happened, and I don't have a reason for it, so I'm not going to make one up.
The case for Detroit, and it's better than the records look
| Record | Runs | Runs allowed | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 80-54 | 661 | 513 | +148 |
| Detroit | 62-71 | 592 | 522 | +70 |
62-71 with a plus 70 run differential is not a 62-71 team. That gap is the biggest in baseball and it's been the story here all year. Montero has been steadier than his line suggests too, 1.00 WHIP, and over his last 5 starts he gave up 0 earned runs twice.
And Snell at 6 innings 3 straight times is a pitcher on a leash. 18 innings back from 3 months off means Los Angeles is going to the bullpen in the 6th or the 7th whether it's going well or not.
Why I'm still taking the Dodgers
Because that's exactly where Detroit keeps losing these.
| Bullpen, 2026 | Saves | Blown | Team ERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 37 | 19 | 3.67 |
| Detroit | 27 | 28 | 3.60 |
Detroit has blown more saves than it has converted, in late August, with a team ERA that's actually better than the Dodgers'. That's the whole plus 70 with a losing record in 2 rows. If this turns into a 6 inning starter handing a 1 run game to the pen, Los Angeles has the better half of that trade even with Snell out of the game.
The lineup part isn't close either right now. Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Matt Vierling are all on the injured list, which is most of an outfield, and Greene alone was an .816 OPS over 492 plate appearances.
What scares me
Snell's command. 7 walks in 18 innings since he came back, and against a Detroit team that will take a walk, a 4th inning where he loses the zone is exactly how a Low pick goes wrong. If Montero goes 6 and Snell goes 4, Detroit wins this comfortably.
It's Low for a reason. I think Los Angeles is the better team and the better bullpen, and I don't think a Saturday afternoon game with 2 rusty starters is anything close to a sure thing.
Not betting advice.
Got a Detroit number you want looked at? Email projectunmuted@proton.me and it gets looked at properly. A stat somebody quoted that smells wrong, a thing you have always assumed about one of these 4 teams and have never seen checked. Every question that arrives is listed with its answer, including the ones where the answer is no.